Weekly Economic Calendar-wk 8/25/2008 (Oops, sometimes we don't correct this date but we really do update this page each weekend)

What the Indicators Mean In our economic outlook we often refer to the various governmental and industry reports. We thought you might want some more information as to what some of these are and we added some very current comments as to what is happening with each.   Click here to Learn What the Indicators Mean

Looking to next week:
The week ahead brings more housing stats, FOMC minutes, GDP revisions and income/spending reports. What should be a holiday lull of a week looks set to be anything but, with Wall Street on high alert for the latest twists and turns in the credit crisis, more volatility in commodity prices and key developments in the race for the White House.

Fallout from the credit crisis continues to plague markets, with investors increasingly believing in the likelihood of a federal bailout of home-funding giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Some market watchers expect the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to take action as early as this weekend. Look for the Fed and Paulson to take steps on Fannie and Freddie -- the time is ripe. The market wants resolution here.

Lehman Brothers will also remain firmly in the spotlight, after state-run Korea Development Bank KDB.UL said on Friday that the U.S. investment bank was one of its options for acquisitions. That announcement came a day after veteran bank analyst Dick Bove said Lehman could become a target of a hostile takeover.

Financials aside, the sharp and frequent turnarounds in the direction of the price of oil have played a key role in the market's daily fortunes. Mounting geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia and any economic data showing slowing global growth could tug oil either way next week.

The U.S. presidential campaign also will take a more central role, as Democrat Barack Obama has revealed his vice presidential running mate Joe Biden ahead of the Democratic Party's national convention in Denver. And, with Republican John McCain set to reveal his vice presidential running mate. Investors will look for how Wall Street-friendly the vice presidential picks are.

Housing will be a dominant theme at the beginning of the week, with July existing home sales on Monday, followed on Tuesday by the S&P Case-Shiller home price index and new home sales for July.

Consumer confidence data on Tuesday, plus consumer sentiment and personal income data on Friday could give the market more clues about the health of consumer spending and the economy as the boost from tax-rebate checks wanes. The personal income data includes the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

July durable goods orders on Wednesday and initial jobless claims data on Thursday could also provide more clues on the economic outlook.

Preliminary real GDP data on Thursday is expected to show second-quarter growth at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, compared with 1.9 percent in the first quarter.

There are a lot of cross-currents here. You've got oil, financials and politics coming together, and it's hard to see that combining in a way that's a perfect storm to the downside or a perfect environment to the upside.

All these cross-currents come in the week before the Labor Day holiday, and analysts said the low trading volume could exacerbate swings in the major stock indexes. I think it's important that the week ahead is the last week in August and so whatever happens, we should take it with a grain of salt.

Companies reporting earnings the week of Aug 25th-29th include:
Monday: APWR
Tuesday: BIG, CHS, COCO, DAKT, LTXX, SAFM, SFD, TUES, APSG, BGP, DY, HAIN, and JCG...
Wednesday: AEO, BWS, CHRS, DLTR, GMTN, OSIS, SOLF, TLB, BNHN, CWTR, FCEL, GA, GEF, HEI, JAS, MW, and TIVO...
Thursday: BF.B, CONN, DLM, DSW, ENER, FLE, FRED, GCO, GRB, KIRK, LB, LAYN, NZ, TIF, VIP, WSM, ZLC, ARUN, JRJC, DLIA, DELL, DLLR, ESL, JMBA, LTON, LAVA, MRVL, MCRS, NOVL, OVTI, PETM, SIGM, LNUX, and WIND...
Friday: VLCCF.

 

Monday 8/25/08

Auction of Bills: The Treasury Department holds its weekly sale of 3-, 6-month bills at 1 p.m.

10:00 AM       Existing Home Sales for Jul

 

Tuesday 8/26/2008

Chain Store Sales Index: BTM/Schroeder releases its report at 9 a.m. EST for the week ended 08/22.

10:00 AM       Consumer Confidence for  Aug

10:00 AM       New Home Sales for  Jul

Weekly Retail Sales: LJR Redbook announces its report at 10:35 a.m. EST for chain retailers for the week ended 08/23.

The Treasury Department’s weekly sale of 4-week bills, at 1 p.m.:.

2:00 PM          FOMC Minutes for  Aug 5

 

Wednesday 8/27/08

Mortgage Applications Index: The Mortgage Bankers Association releases at 7:30 a.m. EST the report for the week ended 08/23.

8:30 AM         Durable Orders for  Jul

10:30 a.m.: American Petroleum Institute issues its weekly national petroleum report.

10:35 a.m.: Energy Information Administration releases its weekly report on petroleum inventories.

 

Thursday 8/28/08

Initial Jobless Claims : The Labor Department releases figures at 8:30 a.m. EST for the week ended 08/23.

8:30 AM         Chain Deflator-Prel. for  Q2

8:30 AM         GDP-Prel. for  Q2

Mortgage Rate Survey: Freddie Mac releases figures at 11:30 a.m. EST for this week.

11 a.m.: Weekly 3-and 6-month bill sale offerings, at the Treasury Department.

10:30 am. Weekly natural gas inventories.

 

Friday 8/29/08

8:30 AM         Personal Income for  Jul

8:30 AM         Personal Spending for  Jul

9:45 AM         Chicago PMI for  Aug

10:00 AM       Mich Sentiment-Rev. for Aug

 

Economic Forecast and Calendar

 

Indicator

Period

Release
Date

Previous

Forecast

Survey

Existing home sales

July

8/25
10am

 4.86 million

4.85 million

4.90 million

Case-Shiller home prices

2Q

8/26
9am

 -14.1%

N/A

N/A

New home sales

July

8/26
10am

 530,000

520,000

525,000

Consumer confidence

Aug.

8/26
10am

51.9 

52.0

53.0

Durable goods orders

July

8/27
8:30am

0.8%

0.2%

0.1%

GDP revision

Q2

8/28
8:30am

1.9%

2.6%

2.8%

Personal income

July 

8/29
8:30am

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

Consumer spending

July 

8/29
8:30am

0.6%

0.2%

0.2%

Core PCE price index

July 

8/29
8:30am

0.3%

0.3%

N/A

Chicago PMI

Aug.

8/29
9:45am

50.8%

49.0%

49.9%

Consumer sentiment

Aug.

8/29
10am

61.7

61.7

62.0

Current quarter GDP

3Q

10/30
8:30am

1.9% (2Q) 

1.0%

1.2%

 GDP

4Q

Jan. '09
8:30am

1.9% (2Q) 

0.4%

0.3%

 

Federal Reserve Policy Forecast

 

Current policy

After FOMC 
meeting on

Forecast

Consensus

Fed Funds:
2.00%

Sept. 16

2.00%

2.00%

Oct. 29

2.50%

2.00%

Jan. 28

3.00%

2.00%

Odds of change
from current policy

 

Sept. 16

5%

18%

Oct. 29

55%

36%

Jan. 28

95%

65%

 

Washington events for Aug. 25 - 29

All times Eastern

Congress on recess until Sept. 8

Monday, Aug. 25

10 a.m.: Existing-home sales for July, at the National Association of Realtors.

Tuesday, Aug. 26

10 a.m.: New-home sales for July, at the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence index for August, at the Conference Board.

2 p.m.: FOMC minutes of Aug. 5 meeting released, at the Fed.

Wednesday, Aug. 27

8:30 a.m.: Durable-goods orders for July, at the Commerce Department.

Thursday, Aug. 28

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, at the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Preliminary estimates for second-quarter GDP, at the Commerce Department.

Friday, Aug. 29

8:30 a.m.: Personal income and spending for July, at the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for August, released by University of Michigan.

 Source: Barron’s , IBD, etc.

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