Selections

Selections

Weekly Ideas for 6/10/2008

Trading Strategy - Remain safe with your portfolio. Don’t think that Monday’s trading was positive. The major indices ended the session in mixed fashion. The S&P 500 gained one point, as strength in energy (+2.7%) helped offset weakness in financials (-2.3%). This result is somewhat disappointing, considering the S&P 500 could only muster a 0.1% gain after falling more than 3% on Friday -- especially taking into consideration that the session's economic data topped expectations and that crude prices (-2.8%) posted a steep decline. It's hard for anyone to jump in whole hog after Friday. I think everyone's going to watch oil, and I think it's going to paralyze us for a while. The financials are a key factor in this market. It almost seems we're stuck in this range, trying to figure out when the end of this whole financial crisis is over. Please remain cautious.

The April trade balance report is the sole item on the economic calendar Tuesday, set for release at 8:30 AM. Economists forecast a deficit of $60.0 billion. Tuesday at 8:00 AM, Dallas Fed President Fisher is going to speak on globalization and monetary policy.

Only five companies are confirmed to report their quarterly earnings results and none will have an impact on the broader market including before the open: PBY and STEI.

We have one idea this week – Chesapeake Energy (CHK) - really a natural gas play. Expect gas to rise another 25 percent and the stock to follow.

Just a reminder, when we say HOLD in the stock comments, what we assume is that you have opened a position. Try not to chase any stock that has moved beyond the optimal buying range. Also, we comment on our ideas for six weeks but if they are good you should continue to own them but tighten stops almost daily to protect your profits Always remember to raise the stop – protect profits or use trailing stops. ~ Steve

6/10/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Comments 6/10/08
Chesapeake Energy _o	CHK	$60.08	Energy Oil & gas Buy range 59.32 to 60.60 Stop 53.38 Target 68-70 in 6 months then higher with gas prices

_o optionable

Comments on Ideas from last week

6/3/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Close 6/2/08	Comments 6/10/08
Peabody Energy _o	BTU	$81.40 (4.7% Hold	$77.52	Metals and mining – Coal Buy range 74.85 to 77.50 Stop 70.73 or 10% trailing Target 86 then much higher. You want to own this for decades as we start to make oil from coal. But for now, an energy play on a stock with great technicals in a great sector.

_o optionable

Comments on Ideas from 2 weeks ago

5/27/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Close 6/2/08	Close 5/27/08	Comments 6/10/08
Colfax Corp.	CFX	$23.20 hold	$24.32 (2.4%) Hold	$23.75	Manufacturing - Colfax's products serve various applications in commercial marine, oil and gas, power generation, global navy, and general industries. Buy range 23.41 to 23.78 Stop should be a 10% trailing stop. Target 30 then triple in 24 months.

Comments on Ideas from 3 weeks ago

5/20/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Close 6/2/08	Close 5/27/08	Close 5/19/08	Comments 6/10/08
Transocean Inc. _o	RIG	$148.10 hold this should stay above 145	$148.59 hold this should stay above 145	$153.32 hold this should stay above 145	$161.39	Energy – Oil &gas drilling and exploration. Buy range 159.12 to161.70 Stop 145.12 Target 175 when oil hits $140-145 then higher to over $200

_o optionable

Comments on Ideas from 4 weeks ago

5/13/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Close 6/2/08	Close 5/27/08	Close 5/19/08	Close 5/12/08	Comments 6/10/08
Overstock.com _o	OSTK	$23.38 Sold for 16% gain	$25.47 (16%) Sell	$28.05 (27.7% hold	$26.89 (22.7% hold	$21.96	Catalog on-line and mail order. Shipping is just $2.95, yes less than the price of a gallon of gas. Buy range 20.77 to 21.90 Stop 18.40 Target 37.50

_o optionable

Comments on Ideas from 8 weeks ago

4/22/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Close 6/2/08	Close 5/27/08	Close 5/19/08	Close 5/12/08	Close 4/21/08	Comments 6/10/08
Penn West Energy Trust _o	PWE	$33.29 (8.8%) hold	$32.87 (5.5%) hold	$33.26 (8.3%) hold	$33.83 (8.6%) hold	$32.06 (2.9%) hold	$31.15	Diversified investments Oil & gas Trust with a 13.2% yield Buy range 30.80 to 31.30 Stop 30.08 Target 36 for now and then higher

_o optionable

Comments on Ideas from 9 weeks ago

4/15/08 Longer-term idea	Symbol	Close 6/9/08	Close 6/2/08	Close 5/27/08	Close 5/19/08	Close 5/12/08	Close 4/21/08	Close 4/14/08	Comments 6/10/08
Agrium Inc. _o	AGU	$94.81 (23.7% hold	$87.23 (13.8% Hold	$81.75 (6.7%) hold other half	$85.61 Sell half	$86.52 (12.9% hold if your stop didn’t triggerr	$92.15 (20.3% hold	$76.59	Agricultural chemicals Buy range 74.00 to 77.00 Stop 71.90 Target 95.60

_o optionable

Comments on Ideas from 19 weeks ago

1/29/08 longer term idea

Symbol

Close
6/9/08

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6/2/08

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5/19/08

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4/21/08

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4/7/08

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3/31/08

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3/24/08

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3/11/08

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2/19/08

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1/28/08

Comments 6/10/08

T. Rowe Price New Era

PRNEX

$71.11
(28%)
hold

69.70
(25.5%
hold

$71.11
(28%)
hold

$67.43
(21.4%
hold

$61.44
(10.6%
hold

$58.03
(4.5%)
hold

$55.40
buy more

$59.27

$57.25
hold

$55.51

Mutual fund of Energy and Precious Metals Buy here Use a $5.00 Stop. Target a longer term hold but with gold mining problems and long term oil shortages this can only go higher long-term.

Good luck and set those stops.

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